Sexting and the dire predictions of Alexander Fraser Tytler

Noted historian Alexander Fraser Tytler (1747 -1813) predicted that most democracies would fail after 200 years. He said the start of the decline and eventual collapse would be citizens voting themselves money from the treasury.

The Tytler Cycle

From that point forward liberty is in decline. A period of make believe abundance ensues, and then selfishness and complacency become ascendant in society. This is followed by a period characterized by apathy and a lack of responsibility. “Nothing is my fault, its the gummint’s fault”.

This attitude breeds dependency and eventually full govt control, from which the final collapse ensues, and the cycle starts all over again.

It’s curious how a man born in 1747 could so accurately describe socialism and its outcomes. It is also curious that the socialists who prevail today apparently have such little knowledge of Tytler’s predictions, ideas that are frequently summarized in the following quote-

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world’s greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.”

Loose fiscal policy is of course a subjective term, but there has been no shortage of commentary suggesting this is occurring in New Zealand today. Virtual printing of money and enormous blow out in debt to allow the govt to transfer this illusory wealth to the people to sustain an economy faltering under the strain of Covid19.

Will the New Zealand economy collapse? Predictions suggesting this may happen are sparse, in accord with the tradition that they can be self-fulfilling. However, the borrowing that took place is considered by many to be a reckless gamble predicated upon interest rates and inflation remaining low.

If the gamble doesn’t come off, there’s every chance the first part of Tytler’s prediction could become a reality. Especially with the inflated value of housing and the bank’s exposure to lending.

Verity says sending nude pictures to men is “as normal as ordering an Uber”

As to the second part, a “journalist” named Verity Johnson has written an article today on texting as it is known. Apparently where men and women send titillating photos back and forth by telephone. Women are then upset that these pictures are sometimes more widely distributed.

Verity blames the law. She says it isn’t working and it needs fixing. Quote-

“And before you say, “Well, it’s your fault for sending them …”, let’s just agree on something. The fact is that, if you’re under 35 and have a smartphone, then you send nudes. It’s as normal as ordering an Uber.”

There you go. Its normal. Women misjudge men, and its the govt’s fault. Three stages into the up-swing part of the diagram above right there, and depending on where you start, we’re around that 200 year mark too.

Some people may be surprised at Verity’s cavalier attitude, but Alexander Fraser Tytler would probably say its merely a phase from the cycle he predicted so long ago.


  • Anthropologist James D Unwin averred much the same. He reported that, as soon as societies (or groups) allowed ethical / moral laxity to be “normal,” the decline started. Destruction of that group or society became immutable within 100 years. He reported that there were no exceptions



    • Well the left have to attack morality as degenerate driven dependency and taking from what others have earnt is a big part of their system.