If Winston Peters does make it back into parliament he can thank the utterly inept campaign run by the National party for a large part of this success.
If you’re a Conservative you probably still find it hard to vote for a man who betrayed you so badly in 2017. Still, whatever contempt or feelings for revenge you have towards Mr Peters and his NZ First party, there is still not much on offer elsewhere. To many Conservatives, National and ACT are almost as unappealing as NZ First.
How many of us can stomach voting for Mr Luxon when we see him on so many occasions saying he is “100% committed” to the impossible and utterly fraudulent goal of Net Carbon Zero? When we see him saying it is beyond question that man’s activities are affecting the weather, and that it is time for “deniers” to accept this “truth”?
Simple logic tells any rational and thinking person that when nature produces 96% of CO2, there is no logical way man’s miniscule rate of production can be a major factor in changing the weather. Its just abject nonsense, or worse, globalist communist propaganda, and no sane person should accept it.
Yet Mr Luxon is convinced, and wants to enact economically punishing legislation on our productive sector. Urged on by a short sighted self interested wind and solar energy sector who see a quick buck in pandering to the demands of the global left.
Then we have National’s very tepid interest in protecting free speech or stopping subsidies to the media. Whereas Melissa Lee has said she didn’t like the PJIF, Luxon hasn’t said much at all. Radio NZ and TV One are the worst progressive left propaganda outlets in the country. TV One is largely kept afloat by govt advertising. Will National cut this back? Or better still, privatise both of these odious organisations?
National says little about this or so many other concerns that Conservatives see as important. Their reticence has left the door wide open, and Winston Peters cannot in the least be blamed for capitalising on the opportunity offered. Especially in respect of facing down Labour’s fake but dominant Maori faction. The one reason many may have for voting for anyone other than Labour.
So what about ACT? David Seymour and his party have made it quite clear they do not even like Conservatives. As demonstrated by their move to stand against Simon O’Connor in the Tamaki seat. O’Connor is one person in National who has had things to say. On free speech and even late term abortion. So of all the people to stand against, so many opponents of liberty that infest National and Labour, ACT chose Mr O’Connor to try and spoil his election chances in Tamaki.
A Conservative could not be blamed if they decided to sit this election out on the grounds that the parties posing as the centre right are directly opposed to their interests. What’s left to conserve? What’s to vote for? If NZ is hell bent on self destruction maybe the awakening will come quicker if it plunges into the abyss now and not later.
A few important changes could bring an end to this impasse. Conservatives seeking a path to democratic representation may find that path if NZ First can be converted from Winston’s private party to a real political entity.
How is this conversion accomplished?
Winston, after electing the Ardern govt in 2017, is forever spoilt goods. He must ease his way out of the leadership. Deputy leader Shane Jones, the administrator of the corrupt cronyist Provincial Development Fund, and the self described “champion of forestry” has to go too.
They are replaced by leaders from within the loosely based freedom movement. Leighton Baker is first choice for the new NZ First leader. There is no shortage of choices for deputy. Kirsten Murfitt (already in the party) is a standout but any of the people who quit Matt King’s party could also be excellent candidates.
NZ First without the acrimonious Winston Peters and led by Leighton Baker may lose some long time supporters, but would immediately gain a vote base of at least 200,000 people and perhaps a lot more from the twin disenfranchised demographic of Conservative NZ and/ or the freedom movement. This equals roughly ten percent of the overall vote base and gets them way past the 5% threshold.
If the so far independent but impressively well organised/ funded and eminently reputable pressure group Voices For Freedom with its massive mailing list and wide sphere of influence could be persuaded to back the new NZ First, this would provide the party with another badly needed boost. The new party will have a dire need for authenticity and credibility and VFF could provide that. (This is actually the most powerful lever that might convince the aging Winston to step aside)
Pie in the sky stuff readers will mutter. Maybe so. If it can’t happen, this writer is happy to sit 2023 out. Might be a plan better implemented for 2026.
Finally. listen to this report (below, two minutes) on a Nat party public meeting by Peter Williams of Reality Check Radio. Mr Luxon makes it perfectly clear he has no regard for and does not want the votes of the freedom sector. If that is not opening the door wide for Mr Peters, what is?
THE REDBAITER on X 
12 responses to “Could NZ First without Winston be a voting option for Conservatives?”
Great to hear you back in the fray, Red.
There’s a video clip afloat, that implies you’re the author?
Is that correct?
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Hi Friend. Good to hear from you.
If that’s the video I made sometime ago referencing Winston and NZ First and that I recently reposted to twitter, and that someone we both know retweeted on twitter, then the answer is yes.
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O.K. Good. Just checking, in case you’d been spoofed.
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Hi Redbaiter
Interested to see your views on Matt King and Democracy NZ ..
I don’t trust Winnie at all , he was another pushing the jab and attacking anyone who refused it..
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Paulmac-
Hi, thanks for your question. One must appreciate that Matt King is at least courageous and ready to stand for something. Its why he left the National party. However his campaign suffered a setback when a number of very good candidates quit the party citing a shadow leader as the problem. He is only polling around two per cent with National around 38%. I hope he gets in on the party vote. Sadly it doesn’t look likely although Matt himself remains optimistic. You can hear some good interviews with him on Reality Check Radio. I wish him all the best, but IMHO the only real viable choice for Conservatives and the freedom sector lies in a re-constituted NZ First.
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A re-constituted NZ First
We are confronted with choosing the least bad from a nasty and smelly lot on offer. (Swallowing a dead rat?)
The perennial problem persists. There is no real alternative to vote for, that has any chance of electoral success and so achieve the chance to restore democracy in NZ – the way democracy should be.
How has it come to this, that we – the people of NZ – have virtually no real choice? Just the frypan or the fire!
Just Labour, Labour More, Labour Extreme, Labour Lite and Labour Less.
In 2026, what – if anything – will remain of real NZ, if we get more of that same dross in parliament, after October?
CHECK THE DATE
Has anything really changed?
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Thank you.
I have had time to only skim through this so will get back later.
Yes, a vote for Seymour, pushing for the horror of full term abortions
(and voting against any aborted babies not been provided with medical
help or comfort) is ruled out by many. He’s also pushing to extend
euthanasia. I personally found him really unpleasant, too in
correspondence.
I don’t think Leighton Baker is the right person. Helen Houghton of the
New Conservatives is good value and has worked very hard.
Shame Jones is also the wrong person for Winston to be promoting…not
an attractive choice.
Best
Amy
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Amy- There are so many stories about Seymour being arrogant and unlikeable. Worse, he behaves like a political dyslexic. I’ve been advocating for a long while now for his replacement as ACT leader.
Latest is he warned someone who is now a prominent NZF candidate not to speak about the WEF. Because it was a “conspiracy theory”. What’s that about??
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You can call me #NeverWinston, however there’s a lot to like about the prospect of a Winston-less NZ First, Red. If the Board could give him his marching papers, they’d likely earn a couple of votes from my house. Even better if they give Leighton Baker the leadership.
The issue is, without Winston as a lightning rod for the press, would NZ First get the kind of free publicity he gets them? And would it cost them much in the way of support?
I’m like you – seriously considering sitting this one out. Nat/Lab is all the same, and ends up in the same place. If hastening the collapse gets us to a faster re-build then I say, bring it on.
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Hi Gantt. The freedom protesters are a large voting bloc that in reality have nowhere to put their vote. They see all parties as equally bad. However, they also wish to have an impact on this election. This is their quandary.
Matt King was looking good but he upset the freedom candidates that had joined his party and they quit. Leaving supporters homeless again. So now those supporters are drifting to NZFirst. The logic could be that when all parties are equally as unattractive, does it matter which one you choose? So if you’re going to choose one, choose the one you can manipulate.
With a couple of good candidates joining NZ First recently, Winston has come out with a few statements that have obviously been driven by the views of these new candidates. So he is open to manipulation.
Highly unlikely he would quit the party as he should, so if the freedom bloc is supporting Winston, it must be doing so in the belief they can control the party and thereby act as a counter to the leader’s unreliability.
According to the latest polls, National and ACT can govern without Winston. Seymour has said he will not be part of a coalition with NZFirst. So if they want to have influence through NZ First, the freedom bloc must draw votes from ACT and National. Not likely, but possible.
It has become such a convoluted mess it is difficult to see any outcome that will benefit anyone, and staying right out of it is looking like a better option every day.
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Excellent points, Red. The other element is that Winston is 78 years old. He’d be 81 by the time the next election rolls around and so NZ First have got to be thinking about succession (Shame Jones being an utterly ludicrous proposition as replacement).
Seymour – who knows there’s no way anyone from the freedom bloc will ever vote for him – has taken a gamble ruling out any governing agreement with Winston. If Nat/Act win enough to govern alone after the election, it’s paid off. If not and Winston is king-maker, there’s no way he’ll be satisfied to sit on the cross benches propping up a Nat/Act government on confidence & supply – especially if Chippie offers him the Deputy PM role. All Seymour’s done is give Winston licence to once again go with Labour (which he’s likely to do anyway, despite his current mewling to the contrary).
The freedom bloc has a problem, if sitting the election out or giving a vote to a ~1% party are too unpalatable.
Vote Luxon, who has said he doesn’t want the votes of “anti vaxers” (people who have questions about the covid tyranny and the pushing of an experimental gene therapy)?
Vote Seymour, who’s just like Luxon only slimier?
Vote Winston, with whom there’s a 87% chance of a broken heart when he inks a deal with Chippe?
There are no good choices in 2023, but maybe given NZ First is scooping up some excellent candidates, in Winston’s absence they may be a good choice in 2026.
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Great to see this article! I know many people struggling to know who to vote for. Luxon seems morally weak on every issue a conservative might take into account when voting. I too have been impressed by VFF. These are real kiwis with conviction, initiative and courage.
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